I Need A Goal For My First 5k (Second Race)

It occurred to me today I have no idea what my goal time should be for my first 5k. Some would say just go out have fun, finish it and PR next time. My problem is I already finished my first race and it was longer then a 5K (8k). Finishing shouldn't be a problem. So I don't have any real idea what I should be shooting for.

Going into my 8k I had a goal of finishing less the 1 hour seeing how my training pace was 12:00 minutes during my long runs (up to 7 miles). I figured that was a safe goal. Well as most who read this blog know I (and by the side bar to the right) I killed that time by 13 minutes (47:03). Obviously I set the bar a bit low.

I have 4 weeks to train before my next race so I imagine I can cut a bit time off my pace. I figure 20 or 30 seconds..but first I need a good idea what my 5k time should be..lucky for me (and other readers) I found this tool.

http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/rp.php

I enter my stats (32 year old, male, 8k, 47:03) and this thing says I'm going run a 5k (as of the shape I was in 1 1/2 weeks ago) in..

28:45 (average of 4 forumlas 28:38, 28:41, 28:35, 29:04) at a 9:15 pace.

That sounds pretty close 15 seconds faster then my 8k time. But I have couple other factors to factor in

• Shorter Distance:
  The last 2 miles were a lot harder then the first 3 during my 8k in fact I remember my 3 mile split being pretty good so I'll give myself -5 more seconds tht puts my goal at 3x-5 = -15 = 28:30
  
• 4 weeks of training:
  I'm doing some more tempo work/ intervals and working on a quick 3 this is a new strategy for me as before I was just "covering the distance". My training pace has gone up quite a bit knowing this so I'm hoping to get another 10 seconds here that = -30 so will put it at 28:00
  
• I weigh less (or will) :
  I'm thinking I'll tip 180 by race day which is 4 lbs less then previous race...fortunate for me there is another calculator for that.
  http://www.runningforfitness.org/calc/weighteffect.php?metres=5000&hr=0&min=28&sec=0&weight=184&weightunits=lbs&Submit=Calculate
  which equals (drum roll)

My New Goal: 27:29

Anything less then that will be a disgrace and it will be in front of 1000s of people (this thing runs before a local parade..lol)

I'm going to do a mock run next week to see where I'm at...but I do think this is an attainable goal...stay tuned.